Before he returned to politics, won a national election and became the first would-be chancellor in modern German history to fail to win the job on the first ballot in Parliament, Friedrich Merz accepted an invitation to a gathering of the French Foreign Legion in Corsica.
At the last moment, the organizers asked him to arrive on the parade ground not by road or rail, but by parachute. Mr. Merz, then a corporate lawyer, had never jumped out of a plane. But a fellow attendee recalled recently that Mr. Merz did not hesitate. He made the jump — successfully, but with a bit of a rough landing.
It is not yet clear if Mr. Merz’s rough landing in his bid for the chancellery is a stumble, or something more dire. He still appears likely to become Germany’s next leader, at a pivotal time for the nation’s economy, security and role in Europe.
But his inability to secure the votes he needed Tuesday to become chancellor is an ominous sign for Mr. Merz, as he attempts to wrangle lawmakers to confront crises at home and abroad, while holding off a surge from the far-right Alternative for Germany, or AfD.
Mr. Merz is a product of the Sauerland in Germany’s wealthy west, a region that defines his politics and persona. During his campaign, he ran on the slogan “More Sauerland for Germany,” evoking the region’s image as a heartland of the country.
Supporters call him an agile politician with the potential to deliver on the big issues worrying the German public: growth, defense, immigration.
“I think he’s extremely well prepared and very deep and thoughtful,” said John P. Schmitz, a deputy White House counsel under George H.W. Bush. Mr. Schmitz helped hire Mr. Merz to work in the German offices of the Chicago law firm Mayer Brown and jumped out of the plane in Corsica with Mr. Merz around 2005.
But others say Mr. Merz struggles to plan more than one step ahead, leading him to break promises — and leaving him vulnerable to surprise setbacks like the vote Tuesday.
His about-faces on spending and migration have alienated many of his base conservative voters. Mr. Merz and his party have sagged in the polls since the election, and the AfD has drawn even with them in some surveys. Even before the loss Tuesday, he had one of the lowest approval ratings of any German leader in the modern era.
“There’s this old saying: ‘Whatever you do, act wisely and consider the end,’” said Ruprecht Polenz, a former secretary general of Mr. Merz’s party. “This thinking,” he added, “I feel is not his main strength.”
Read more about Mr. Merz, his background and his approach to politics in our profile of him.
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