First major 2026 Atlantic hurricane forecast predicts below-average season

That prediction anchors the latest annual hurricane forecast from Colorado State University’s Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling and Software team, which was initially released in April and updated Wednesday. 

Colorado State University’s team of experts estimate that 2026 will see nine named storms develop in the Atlantic basin, including four hurricanes and one major hurricane (defined as Category 3 or higher). Those estimates were revised down from 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes, as the researchers originally predicted.

They could occur at any point in the season, which officially runs from June 1 to Nov. 30 and peaks between August and October. Researchers will be keeping an eye on conditions that could hint at their projected timing, since the forecast always carries some uncertainty. Phil Klotzbach, its lead author, said at a news conference unveiling the team’s April predictions that “there are curveballs that could come our way.”

This forecast will be continuously updated as hurricane season progresses. They are closely monitored each year by leaders and residents of hurricane-prone states — especially Florida and states along the Gulf Coast and Eastern Seaboard — readying themselves for the possibilities ahead.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has also released its forecast, similarly predicting a below-average season.

“We always recommend, to coastal residents, to prepare the same way for every season,” Delián Colón-Burgos, who co-authored the forecast, told CBS News. 

Hurricane activity this year will dip below 75% of the long-term seasonal average, according to the forecast. If accurate, that would mark a decrease from last year’s hurricane season, which brought 13 named storms, five hurricanes and four major hurricanes, although none made direct landfall in the U.S. in 2025. Federal data show an average season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

Colón-Burgos emphasized that communities vulnerable to the hazards of hurricane season should “take it seriously” regardless of the statistics. She said encouraging people to start preparations in advance and remain alert no matter what “is one of the most important things that we want to get across.”

An atmospheric shift

A change in atmospheric conditions that can either coax or suppress the development of Atlantic hurricanes is the main driver of researchers’ below-average forecast, Colón-Burgos said.

That’s primarily because El Niño, the warmer phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, cycle, arrived in late spring,
according to the Climate Prediction Center. A phenomenon defined by shifting sea surface temperatures and precipitation in the Pacific Ocean, the cycle impacts weather across the United States and often foreshadows how busy a hurricane season will be.

During El Niño, Atlantic hurricanes tend to be less intense and less frequent.

The Climate Prediction Center has said El Niño may intensify in the coming months, and last until at least the end of 2026. Forecasters suggest there’s a 63% chance that El Niño will have grown so strong by the end of this year’s hurricane season that it could rank among the largest events of its kind in the historical record, which dates back to 1950.

Whether sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean rise or fall in the coming weeks is one variable creating uncertainty in hurricane forecasts. Colón-Burgos said how temperature trends shape up could affect future storm predictions.

How many storms will make landfall in 2026?

The current forecast predicts there’s a 32% chance of a major hurricane making landfall somewhere along the U.S. coastline in 2026, and a 35% chance of one making landfall in the Caribbean. While those figures may seem low, researchers note that they don’t account for less powerful storms, which can still be dangerous. 

“It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season for you,” said Michael Bell, who co-authored the forecast, in a statement.

No hurricanes struck the U.S. last year, for the first time in a decade, but some Caribbean islands were hit especially hard. Jamaica, in particular, was devastated by Hurricane Melissa, which made landfall as a formidable Category 5 storm and concluded the 2025 hurricane season.

Named storms in 2026

The World Meteorological Organization prepares a list of names that will be assigned to a given year’s tropical storms and hurricanes. 

For 2026, the first named storm was called Arthur. It will be followed by Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard and Fay. The list continues alphabetically until wrapping up with Vicky and Wilfred, although not all letters in the alphabet are represented.

A storm receives a name when its maximum wind speeds reach 39 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. If winds reach 74 mph, the storm becomes a hurricane. “Major” hurricanes are those with winds of at least 111 mph, corresponding with Category 3 or above on the Saffir-Simpson Scale commonly used to rate storms. Such powerful hurricanes are capable of causing catastrophic damage.