Traders on Kalshi give a 92% chance to more tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025, when they job losses totaled 447,000.
Already in 2026, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has reported 178,000 layoffs in the information sector through March, according to data from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.
In February, Block cited AI as the reason for laying off almost half of its workers. In April, Instagram and WhatsApp owner Meta Platforms cut 10% of its workforce, or about 8,000 workers, as it ramps up AI investment. Amazon laid off 16,000 corporate workers in January, saying it was part of an anti-bureaucracy push.
Total employment in the information sector has declined dramatically since its post-pandemic peak of more than 3.1 million.
In March, the total was just under 2.8 million workers.
Traders on Polymarket have a similarly grim outlook for tech layoffs, giving 87% odds to more cuts in 2026 than in 2025.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.
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