Apple is set to take back the market-cap crown from Nvidia. Upcoming earnings may push it over the top
Apple is set to leapfrog Nvidia and reclaim its title as the world’s largest company as tech investors embrace consumer hardware again. Apple’s upcoming strong earnings may be the catalyst that pushes it over the top. Apple on Friday was trading at a market value of $5.05 trillion, compared to $5.10 trillion for Nvidia. Apple shares are having a great October — up 4% — as concerns about the AI financing environment drag Nvidia down 7% for the month. Apple’s market value briefly surpassed Nvidia in July, before falling back below. The new iPhone Duo hits stores Friday , with customers lining up to get their hands on it. Enthusiasm around that event has helped push the shares to an all-time high this week as the rest of the tech sector suffers. Apple is currently one of the top five holdings in our Essential 40 ETF . The iPhone Duo is a premium product, starting at $1,999 and climbing above $3,000 for the highest-storage model. That’s a much different story from Apple’s recent focus on lower-priced models in international markets. Demand has been strong. Preorders sold out almost immediately after opening Oct. 16, with some delivery estimates stretching into January. Apple has reportedly even raised its production targets. That’s a sign that Apple’s hardware business is coming back to life, particularly at the high end of the market. Earnings ahead As exciting as the Duo launch is, I’m curious to see what happens when Apple reports earnings on Nov. 2. Revenue expectations are around $113 billion, following Apple’s earlier guidance for 9% to 11% year-over-year growth. I’ll be watching what management says about iPhone demand, but Apple’s services business could be the catalyst that keeps the wind in its sails. Services generated about $109 billion in revenue in fiscal 2025, accounting for only about a quarter of Apple’s business. Yet it carries gross margins of approximately 75%, compared with roughly 37% for hardware. That means services contribute more than 40% of Apple’s total gross profit despite making up a much smaller share of revenue. Could Apple lead the market again? For a while, Apple has been viewed more as a defensive, quality-growth investment while Nvidia and other AI stocks captured investors’ attention. Now with Apple leading the Magnificent Seven and closing in on Nvidia’s valuation, I think the market may be starting to recognize the strength of its broader business. The question is whether Apple can reclaim its old role as the stock that sets the tone for the entire market. With hardware demand picking up and earnings just around the corner, I wouldn’t be surprised if Apple once again becomes the company everyone is watching. Jeff Kilburg is the founder and CEO of KKM Financial. Prior to starting his own firm, he spent more than two decades on the floors of the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE). Disclosures: Kilburg owns through his Essential 40 ETF. All opinions expressed by the [CNBC Pro contributors] are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, or its parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. This content is provided as part of our editorial output for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax or legal advice or a recommendation to buy any security or other financial asset. The content is general in nature and does not reflect any individual’s unique personal circumstances. The above content might not be suitable for your particular circumstances. Before making any financial decisions, you should strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment advisor. THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSTITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL’S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. Click here for the full disclaimer.
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