Justin Sullivan | Getty Images
Traders on prediction market platform Kalshi think the cryptocurrency has more room to fall in its current “crypto winter.”
There’s a nearly 80% chance that the flagship crypto’s price will fall below $60,000 in 2026. That would mean bitcoin hitting a new low, tumbling below February’s levels. Early that month, bitcoin dropped as low as $60,062.
Traders also think there’s a 52% chance prices will dip under $50,000 this year. Bitcoin hasn’t traded with a four in front of its price since August 2024.
Week to date, the cryptocurrency is down nearly 10% and bitcoin was last trading around $66,500.
Traders on Kalshi have also grown more bearish on the outlook for when the cryptocurrency might hit six figures again. They give just a 27% chance that happens in 2026, after giving it nearly 50% odds as recently as early May.
Traders on Polymarket, meanwhile, see a 12% likelihood bitcoin hits new all-time highs in 2026.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.
About the Author
