Buy these dividend-paying real estate stocks ahead of earnings, says UBS
Investors should get good news when senior housing and skilled nursing companies report their latest financial results this summer, UBS predicts. The real estate investment trusts, which also pay solid dividends, are enjoying healthy operating fundamentals and sizable accretive acquisitions, analyst Michael Goldsmith said in a note Tuesday. “On operations, we believe Senior Housing continued to benefit from muted supply growth and demographic tailwinds,” he wrote. “Recent conference commentary further suggests that new development projects largely remain uneconomic at current rental rates, supporting our expectation for limited future supply.” The population of the United States is undergoing a shift as baby boomers age and fertility rates decline. This year, the first baby boomers begin turning 80. By 2035, the number of those aged 80 and above is expected to reach nearly 23 million — up from the July 2025 population estimate of roughly 15 million for the age group. Demand is now outpacing construction of new senior housing units, according to the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care . Occupancy neared 90% in the second quarter, according to NIC MAP data released Thursday. On top of the supply/demand picture, the environment has been a healthy one for acquisitions, Goldsmith said. Buy-rated names While UBS is bullish on the subsector, there are certain names it believes standout above the rest. The firm has buy ratings on American Healthcare REIT, CareTrust REIT, Omega Healthcare Investors and Welltower. American Healthcare REIT , which has a 1.89% dividend yield, is expected to release its second-quarter results on Aug. 6. Goldsmith believes external growth will remain a major earnings driver for the company, which has a portfolio of 325 healthcare properties, including senior housing and skilled nursing facilities. He raised his price target on the stock to $63 from $60, suggesting 17% upside from Thursday’s close. “AHR recently raised approximately $700 mm of equity to fund an awarded SHOP pipeline exceeding $1 bn,” Goldsmith wrote. “We believe the equity raise reinforces AHR’s confidence in both transaction opportunities and acquisition economics, with initial yields in the high-5% to low 6% range.” He estimates 2026 core funds from operations of $2.10 per share for 2026, versus the consensus of $2.07 per share. AHR YTD mountain American Healthcare REIT year to date Shares are up 13% so far this year. Goldsmith also increased his price target on Welltower to $271 per share from $249 a share, which implies 17% upside ahead. The company owns and operates more than 2,500 senior and wellness housing communities. It is expected to report earnings on July 27. The new target reflects Welltower’s update that detailed similar or slightly better growth trends and a continued mix shift towards more operating assets, as well as UBS’ positive meeting with management and the recent improvement in the company’s cost of capital, he said. Its operating platform, known as the Welltower Business System, has also been improved upon, he said. Goldsmith’s 2026 core FFO estimate is $6.27 per share, slightly below the $6.29 consensus. Welltower pays a 1.29% dividend yield and has gained 24% year to date. WELL YTD mountain Welltower year to date Lastly, he maintained his price targets on CareTrust REIT and Omega Healthcare Investors of $48 and $54, respectively. That represents 17% upside ahead for CareTrust and 11% upside for Omega Healthcare. CareTrust, which yields 3.88%, is increasingly benefiting from its expansion into care homes in the U.K., as well as senior housing, he said. It has 588 properties in its portfolio. While CareTrust has not released its next earnings date, it is estimated to occur in early August. “CTRE remains highly opportunistic across senior housing and is willing to underwrite a wide range of opportunities, from turnarounds to newly developed assets,” Goldsmith wrote. Goldsmith is forecasting 2026 core FFO of $2.04 per share, in line with the consensus estimate. With Omega Healthcare, he anticipates full-year core FFO of $3.25 per share, versus the consensus of $3.26, he said. Omega Healthcare’s portfolio of more than 1,000 properties largely includes skilled nursing and assisted living facilities. The company, which currently has a 5.57% dividend yield, is set to release its earnings results on July 30. Shares of Omega Healthcare have risen 9% so far in 2026, while CareTrust REIT has moved 11% higher.
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