GOP shifts message on costs as Iran war drags on: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

In today’s edition, Sahil Kapur examines how the Iran war is undercutting what was once a political advantage for Republicans. Plus, Lawrence Hurley takes stock of two big election-related rulings from the Supreme Court.

— Adam Wollner

GOP shifts message on costs with Iran war expected to drag beyond midterms

Analysis by Sahil Kapur

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., made a candid admission today that President Donald Trump’s war against Iran — and the resulting chaos in the Strait of Hormuz — has driven up prices for Americans.

Echoing comments Trump made last week, Johnson said the situation won’t be resolved until after the midterm elections.

“Look, we’re going to acknowledge, obviously, gas prices are too high right now, diesel prices are too high. There’s a very simple reason for it. It’s tied, of course, to the Strait of Hormuz. We have got to get commerce stabilized in the Strait of Hormuz,” Johnson told reporters after a GOP meeting. “Gas prices will immediately come down again. The cost of groceries will, as well, because that’s tied in many ways to the cost of transport, of getting the goods to the market.”

“And so that Iranian situation, the Strait of Hormuz — as soon as that’s resolved, it comes down. Now, the president has forecast, you’ve heard him even in recent days, he thinks it can get done maybe right after the election,” he said.

Johnson’s remarks make it clear that Republicans have lost hope that the Iran war will end before the midterms and have accepted that there’s no way around the economic fallout other than to address it directly. It’s a messaging shift after numerous GOP strategists had hoped the war would end in time for Americans to see some reduction in costs before they head to the polls.

And a new survey highlights the economic headwinds facing Republicans. A New York Times/Siena University poll found that 38% of likely voters approved of Trump’s job performance. On the economy, voters’ No. 1 issue, his approval rating was 39%, and on the cost of living, it sank to 28%. As for the Iran war, 31% approved of Trump’s handling of it.

It culminated in a startling finding: Likely voters now trust Democrats over Republicans on the economy (by 7 points), the cost of living (by 8 points) and even the deficit (by 10 points). The poll also found Democrats leading by nearly 9 points on the generic congressional ballot.

Democrats hope to take full advantage, with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., labeling the Iran conflict “a reckless and costly war of choice” by Trump that has harmed Americans.

Republicans have long enjoyed voter trust on those issues. The economy was an asset for Trump not just in 2024 (when his party scored big wins), but also in 2020 (which helped the GOP overperform downballot and keep Democratic margins to a minimum) and in 2016 (which fueled Trump’s upset win over Hillary Clinton).

In the 2024 election, exit polls found that the economy ranked as the top issue for voters, and those who prioritized it preferred Trump over Kamala Harris by 81% to 18%. Voters said they trusted Trump over Harris to handle the economy by 53% to 46%.

Johnson insisted that the previous administration was the root of Americans’ economic woes.

“We’re not there yet. It takes a long time to turn the aircraft carrier, the ship of state. We’re pulling out of the most disastrous situation that we inherited after Biden-Harris.”

Kyle Stewart contributed.

More on the economy:

• 📈 Inflation watch: A new report released by the Congressional Budget Office found the Iran war was responsible for more than one-third of the increase in inflation this year.
• 💲 Bond watch: The yield on the 10-year Treasury note hit 5.04% earlier today, the highest since 2007.

More on the midterms:

• 🗺️ House landscape: The number of true battleground districts is smaller than in past elections, Ben Kamisar writes. Just 15 districts account for more than half of the $575 million already spent and reserved for advertising in House races from Labor Day to Election Day.
• 🗳️ Data Dive: In the latest edition of his newsletter, Steve Kornacki digs into the shifts among two key voting groups that help explain Democrat James Talarico’s strength in the polls in the Texas Senate race.

Supreme Court pushes back against Trump and the GOP’s election plans

By Lawrence Hurley

The Supreme Court in the last week has delivered major blows to President Donald Trump and his fellow Republicans that suggest the justices will not be receptive to last-minute efforts to change election rules heading into the midterms.

Last night, the court blocked Trump’s plan to exert federal control over mail-in ballots via a Postal Service regulation. The decision came after the court twice last week ruled against Republicans by declining to revive a new congressional map in Missouri that would have eliminated one of two Democratic-held districts.

While the court has a 6-3 conservative majority that often rules for Republican priorities, there are limits to how receptive some justices are to more extreme requests, election law experts told NBC News. That’s especially true for cases that could disrupt voters when an election is close or already underway.

“I think the court is going to pay very close attention to any extraordinary actions that destabilize the electoral process,” said Bob Bauer, who was White House counsel for President Barack Obama. “There’s a signal here that this sort of late intervention is going to receive scrutiny.”

Trump’s response: “It is a big loss for Republicans, and America itself, and makes cheating by the Radical Left ‘Dumocrats,’ on Mail-In Ballots, a much easier thing to do — And now they have an open field to do so!” Trump said on Truth Social, repeating his unfounded claims about widespread election fraud.

Trump called the two dissenting justices, Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas, “legends” and criticized the three justices he appointed to the court.

“These are not the people I interviewed to serve on the United States Supreme Court, they are merely a shell of their original selves,” Trump said.

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That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner.

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