Kalshi traders think July jobs report will come in slightly cooler than economists’ predictions

However, traders on prediction market platform Kalshi think those figures may come in lower. 

Speculators place just a 47% chance that employers added more than 80,000 jobs in July, but they also give a 60% chance that they added more than 70,000 jobs in the month. 

A beat compared with consensus estimates isn’t out of the question, even if not likely: traders place a 41% chance employers added 90,000 jobs in July, and just over a one-in-three chance that the number will come in at six figures. 

However, traders also think there’s a one-in-three chance the number will come in below 60,000. 

Last month, Kalshi traders placed a 63% chance that employers added more than 125,000 jobs in June, above consensus estimates for 115,000. However, the official figure came in much lower, at just 57,000 jobs added.

Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.