Nike falls to 13-year low. Why analysts don’t think the selling is over yet
Nike ‘s shares are primed to open at their lowest price since 2013 on Friday following the footwear seller’s latest financial report. However, analysts warn that it’s still not a good time to buy the stock. The athletics-wear company posted earnings of 48 cents per shares for the fiscal first quarter on Thursday, topping the 43 cents expected by analysts polled by LSEG. However, revenue came in at $11.21 billion for the same period, or slightly below the Street’s consensus estimate of $11.32 billion. The company said that it expects revenues to slide by a high single-digit percentage in fiscal 2027. It noted that adjusted earnings per share for the current fiscal year will likely come in between $1.15 and $1.35. The firm also said that it would lay off more staff as part of its restructuring plan to better “position Nike for long-term growth.” Nevertheless, shares fell 9% in premarket trading following the quarterly report. The stock is now slated to open on Friday at roughly $32 per share, or around its lowest price since 2013. Shares are down about 45% year to date as the footwear firm has struggled to turn around its struggling business, partially due to a lack of innovation in its footwear business and macroeconomic headwinds, among other factors. NKE YTD mountain Shares are down about 45% in 2026. Analysts this week said that Nike is unlikely to bounce back any time soon as it continues to contend with significant pressures within its sportswear and footwear lines, while direct-to-consumer sales broadly suffer. They also pointed to sluggish sales in the company’s critical China market, which have weighed heavily on shares. “It’s simply hard to find good news here,” Wells Fargo analyst Ike Boruchow said Thursday in a note to clients. “Numbers are again coming down (~25% cut to Street EPS), growth may be two years away and valuation isn’t cheap.” Wells Fargo has an equal weight rating on Nike. It also has a $30 price target on shares, implying nearly 15% downside from Thursday’s close. Several analysts are waiting for the company’s investor day in November to get more clarity on the future of Nike’s business and stock. For now, here’s what shops on the Street are saying about Nike. Goldman Sachs: neutral, $30 “While NKE continues to demonstrate healthy growth in its performance business, this is more than offset by significant pressure in its Sportswear, Jordan, and China businesses…Given the scale of these businesses (performance only ~1/3 of revenues in FY26), Nike outlined that the significant actions the company is taking to return the business to a healthy marketplace will meaningfully impact FY27 and continue into FY28. Margins are also now expected to come under pressure as a result of deleverage.” Morgan Stanley: underweight, $27 “While 1Q27 EPS came in above consensus expectations… we note the result 1) was supported by relatively low-quality revenue, with wholesale & apparel offsetting deeper DTC & footwear declines, 2) does not yet reflect the potential [gross margin] risk that could result from sell-through challenges, as confirmed by NKE mgmt. & indicated in our recent channel checks… & 3) was guided to likely represent the best quarter of the year, with both sales & EPS growth set to deteriorate in 2Q-4Q…In short, NKE’s turnaround strategy & timeline remains in flux, with the November Investor Day when we’ll likely have better clarity.” Cit: neutral, $32 “NKE is turning into a cost-cutting story, announcing a $2.5bn cost savings program (~5.5% of F26 sales) as mgmt is adapting to the reality of significant pressure within Sportswear, Jordan, and China (which are expected to last thru F28). Mgmt plans to give more detail on their 5-yr outlook at their investor day, but it seems F29 is now the year mgmt will point to when their ‘Pace’ initiatives can start to move the dial. It isn’t out of the question that NKE can beat some of the guidance they just provided, but there really is no justification…for NKE to receive a premium multiple versus its growing peers.” Bank of America: underperform, $24 “We reiterate our Underperform as visibility on a sales turnaround remains limited. Despite another significant reduction to our estimates, we continue to see downside risk to the premium multiple until the timing of a revenue inflection becomes clearer.” Bernstein: outperform, $45 “Guidance points to a slowdown in growth (-HSD% for the year) and margins (~6% for the year) as Nike continues to clear aged inventory in Lifestyle/Jordan and rightsize the China wholesale business. Mgmt feels ‘very confident’ the numbers are now derisked, but after multiple cuts over the past year Mgmt credibility needs to be rebuilt before investors buy the ‘last cut’ message.”
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