Due to export disruptions from the Gulf, Russia and Kazakhstan caused by the Iran and Ukraine wars, successive monthly OPEC+ hikes over most of this year have remained largely on paper with little impact on the market.
The September increase agreed by core OPEC+ members — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman — finishes the phased rollback of a 1.65 million bpd supply cut originally agreed in 2023, when the group still included the United Arab Emirates, which left OPEC in May.
Although OPEC+ sources said before the meeting the group will likely pause output increases for the fourth quarter, its statement made no reference to what might be agreed for the last three months of 2026.
A pause is still a feasible option, said Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad.
“OPEC+ has finished unwinding its voluntary cuts. The next challenge is managing the surplus that could emerge as export flows normalize,” he said.
“Having completed the restoration campaign, OPEC+ has little incentive to rush into further supply changes. Our base case is a fourth-quarter pause while the group prepares for the 2027 quota negotiations.”
Oil prices moved higher on Friday after Iran attacked two tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
West Texas Intermediate futures rose more than 1% to close at $84.67 per barrel. Brent crude, the international benchmark, also gained more than 1% to settle at $90.12. Prices fell more than 5% for the week after selling off Monday on hopes the conflict in the Middle East would de-escalate.
OPEC reviewing capacity before setting 2027 quotas
OPEC+ is carrying out a review of its members’ oil production capacity that will be used for the 2027 output baselines from which quotas are set.
It faces potentially difficult talks over new production quotas, with some members including Iraq, pushing for higher individual quotas to reflect their higher capacity.
OPEC+ includes 21 members comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries along with Russia and other allies.
In recent years, only the seven countries — and the UAE until its departure — have been involved in monthly production management.
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