Prediction market traders think gas prices will hit new highs for the year

U.S. oil prices are again above $100 per barrel, sending gasoline prices to multi-month highs. But traders on prediction market platforms expect the amount Americans are spending at the pump will hit fresh highs this year. 

Gas prices peaked at $4.56 per gallon on May 21, according to AAA’s national average. Now, traders on Kalshi think there’s a 71% chance that the average will surpass $4.60 in 2026. 

Speculators on Kalshi also place 57% odds that prices will top $4.80 a gallon, and just over a 40% chance that they cross $5.00. U.S. gas prices last hit a record high of just over $5 per gallon in June 2022. 

On Kalshi, contracts in the market ask traders if gas prices will cross various price points. Contracts are resolved using AAA’s data. 

Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have escalated in recent weeks, putting in doubt the status of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passageway for the global supply of oil, and pushing the commodity’s price higher. On Monday, Western Texas Intermediate crude futures were higher by 3.5% to more than $103 per barrel. 

Traders on Kalshi also think that higher oil prices will last for longer. They place 50-50 odds that gas prices will be above $4.25 per gallon on election day, Nov. 3. 

Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.