The S & P 500 ‘s latest sharp surge has echoes of the dot-com bubble — and that could be worrisome, according to BTIG chief market technician Jonathan Krinsky. Over the course of the past four trading days, ending with Tuesday’s close, the broad market index has climbed more than 5% into a 52-week high. This combination has occurred only three other times in the past 30 years, Krinsky said: April 23, 1999, March 21, 2000 and Nov. 9, 2020. “Not statistically significant, but notable that March 21, 2000 was the day before the dead high of the dot-com bubble,” he wrote in his research note. After the April 1999 occurrence, over the next seven months, the S & P 500 traded in a wide sideways range that included a roughly 10% drawdown. The exception was November 2020, which was the breakout before a multi-month uptrend. “Bulls will hope it’s November 9, 2020,” Krinsky wrote. “We have our doubts.” Microsoft ‘s rebound is also a warning sign for the analyst. The stock has surged nearly 27% in four trading sessions, ending Tuesday. The only larger move came in 2000, Krinsky said. The chart analyst sees a striking parallel between now and then. Microsoft reached a record on Dec. 30, 1999. The stock went on to lose 60% over the following ten months, he noted, before a 29% rally over the course of four days. Microsoft also reached another all-time high on July 31, 2025, before falling 37% over the next 11 months, before this latest four-day surge. “These are the two largest four-day rallies in MSFT history, never repeats, but often rhymes,” Krinsky wrote. While the chart analyst is not outright calling a market top, he believes the latest momentum rebound is likely to fail as investors who were hurt during July’s unwind use this rally as a selling opportunity. “The bigger issue we see is the market has been playing musical chairs as money has sloshed from momentum, to value, and now back to momentum. At some point the music stops, and participants might not be able to find a chair,” he said. Krinsky’s concern broadly echoes Michael Burry’s warning Tuesday, although the BTIG charts analyst stops short of declaring a major top and focuses instead on the risk that the latest momentum rebound fails. “I continue to believe it is possible we are near a major top, and possible a 1987-type fall,” Burry had said in a Tuesday Substack post.
