SpaceX shares are now fully valued even after assigning the company a sizable premium for CEO Elon Musk’s track record of building industry-defining businesses, according to HSBC, which said the stock already reflects much of its long-term growth potential. The Wall Street firm initiated coverage with a hold rating and a $115 price target based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation that includes a 2 times “innovation premium” to account for Musk’s ability to commercialize disruptive technologies. The price target sits below the company’s $135 IPO price and its recent trading level of about $118. SPCX 3M mountain SpaceX since IPO “When valuing a company, analysts may sometimes apply a discount (holding structures, dyssynergies, risks etc), but we also consider the case for applying a premium, especially when a strong founder has a proven track record of transforming some industries (including cars and rockets),” HSBC analysts said in a note to clients. HSBC said it departed from traditional valuation methods, arguing that conventional approaches used for conglomerates, special purpose acquisition companies, mining firms or biotechnology companies fail to capture the value investors assign to companies led by founders with proven records of reshaping industries. Instead, analysts looked to Tesla’ s share price performance during its first decade as a public company as the best proxy for determining an appropriate innovation premium, citing the commonality of Musk’s leadership, disruptive technology and business-building approach. The firm’s base-case valuation suggests investors are already pricing in much of SpaceX’s long-term growth potential, including continued expansion of its Starlink satellite internet business, rising launch activity and the development of its AI initiatives. HSBC’s most optimistic “blue sky” scenario values SpaceX at $293 per share, assuming Starship becomes commercially viable beginning in 2027, launch capacity doubles relative to the bank’s base case, Starlink captures a larger addressable market with higher average revenue per user, and the company’s AI assets command richer valuation multiples.
