While the U.S. and Iran have maintained a ceasefire, Iran has yet to signal when it may open the strait nor has the U.S. indicated when it might end its naval blockade of the passageway.
Traders now give a 57% chance traffic in the strait will return to normal by September 1. Odds that will happen by August are hovering around 56%.
Kalshi defines normal traffic flows on the contract as the 7-day moving average of transit through the strait crossing 60 based on data from IMF PortWatch.
It came after on Sunday President Donald Trump said the U.S. military will “guide” ships through the strait that have been stranded near it since the war began.
The latest headlines and lack of any breakthrough in negotiations between the two countries have made traders reassess when they think the Strait will open. Just a week ago, on April 27, traders thought the most likely scenario was the strait reopening by July 1.
Traders, though, see the passageway likely open by next year, giving 76% odds that normal traffic returns by January 1, 2027.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes a CNBC minority investment.
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