NYSE
Speculators place about 50-50 odds that the tech-heavy index will close 2026 above 30,000, a level it first crossed in late May. As of midday trading Tuesday, the index was also only about 1% below 30,000.
On Kalshi, the contracts asks speculators to place “yes” or “no” trades endorsing or opposing whether the Nasdaq-100 will end the year within a certain point range. The contracts will resolve based on prices for the index on Dec. 31, as provided by Google Finance.
The Nasdaq-100’s big run up in 2026 came after the U.S. stock market hit its Iran war-induced lows on March 30. Between then and June 2, the index, comprised of the 100 largest non-financial stocks on Nasdaq, surged more than 33% amid renewed confidence in the artificial intelligence trade.
Fading confidence
But traders today appear to think that the bull run doesn’t have much steam left.
Another contract shows 40% odds that the Nasdaq-100’s high for 2026 will end up above 32,000. The intraday high for the year thus far is 30,762, reached on June 3.
Nasdaq-100 year-to-date.
Traders only assign about a 27% chance that the Nasdaq-100 will climb above 33,000 by the end of the year.
In a report out Tuesday, UBS note said it expects the broader market rally to continue in the second-half of 2026, with the possibility that technology is no longer the leader. That could weigh on the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100, which just welcomed SpaceX as its newest member on Tuesday.
“Following the strong rally in semiconductor stocks in the second quarter of this year, investors are increasingly looking beyond tech and toward other sectors as they reassess the next phase of the AI trade,” wrote UBS chief investment officer for the Americas Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi. “While we remain confident in AI’s growth story … we have also highlighted that the next leg of equity gains is likely to be marked by a broadening of market leadership.”
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.
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