Use this SpaceX options strategy to play the next Starship flight, set for Sept. 15, Jeff Kilburg says
SpaceX is preparing to launch, and I want to use options to own more upside of this literal rocket ship company. The stock reclaimed its opening IPO print of $150, yet is still about 35% below the $225 high that followed the June 12 IPO mania. The actual IPO price was $135 and August trading sessions violated that level, falling all the way to washout level of $104.83; significant post-IPO price discovery, for sure. Traders spent the summer treating SPCX as a lockup-and-capex problem. The last 48 hours, the narrative has flipped it back toward what it actually is: the only company that launches the satellites, runs the constellation, and is stacking AI compute on the same balance sheet. Oppenheimer’s Tim Horan took the price target to $280 from $250 and kept a buy recommendation, citing the vertically integrated AI stack of data, Nvidia GPUs, Grok and the Cursor deal. Bernstein has AI revenue going to $115 billion in 2027 from $24.6 billion in 2026 (a true hockey stick proforma). J.P. Morgan is also up at $240. Deutsche Bank and BofA stay buy-rated. The Wall Street analyst consensus (which isn’t always accurate, by the way) still sees another 50% upside from here. SPCX 1M mountain SPCX 1-month chart The second quarter already showed the mix: revenue $7.81 billion, +92%, a beat. Starlink at 12 million subscribers. Nameplate compute 1.4 GW. The space segment is still burning tons of cash on Starship, but that is the ” vig ” you pay for this highflyer. Fortunately, Flight 13 cleared its objectives after the quarter closed. SpaceX has told the FCC it is targeting September 15 for Starship Flight 14, the first fully orbital attempt and the vehicle that is supposed to drop V3 Starlink birds at a cadence Falcon, an earlier generation of SpaceX rocket, cannot match. One safely delivered Starship load is the capacity story investors want. That date sits inside September regular options expiration. I believe two supply events are why the stock is still cheap: the September 9 share unlock, and the painful memory of the summer’s air pocket post-IPO. Those are the reasons implied volatility (IV) crushed from triple-digits at the IPO, to a 52% 30-day reading with IV rank near the bottom of its post-listing range. Historical vol is still running hotter than implied. In layman’s terms, you are being paid to take the unlock that everyone already circled. The defined-risk way to express the rebound is a bullish risk reversal into September 18. Sell the expensive fear around the unlock, buy the call that hopefully participates if Flight 14 and the AI re-rate do what the targets imply. The trade: Sold the 9/18/2026 $140 put for $2.15 Bought the 9/18/2026 $160 call for $2.50 Net debit: $0.35, or $35 per one-lot SPCX was trading around $149 when this was established. The short put means you have to be willing to own SPCX at $140 (about 10% lower) yet still above the IPO print of $135. Not a bad level to target as Bernstein is modeling toward $248 and Oppenheimer toward $280. The long $160 call is about 7% out-of-the-money and pays if the stock thrusts back through the mid-$160s into the September 15 flight window . The upside in this SPCX position above $160.35 is uncapped. Max loss on the call side is the $0.35 debit if you never get assigned with an assignment risk if the stock falls below $140 on expiration (September 18 covers both known events: the September 9 unlock and Flight 14). DISCLOSURES: Kilburg owns SPCX personally and also owns SPCX in the Mango Growth ETF (ticker:GARY) that he co-manages. All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, or its parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY . THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSTITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL’S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. Click here for the full disclaimer.
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